Counter Strategy: the Afghan War example

For every strategy there is a counter strategy, or at least the best counter strategy should exist that will allow an optimal outcome with a range of probabilities and risks that create the best opportunity for victory.

In the Afghan war, much like American strategy in WWII, mine was to create what was necessary to counter the difficulties faced by the war effort. For instance:

1. Supply lines were exposed to terrorist attacks in Pakistani territory where NATO could not defend them, because they had no troops present which made fuel costs rise to $500 a gallon for the US military.

My counter strategy was this:

- create an alternate supply line through the north: this included a logistics base in Russia, a Chinese built railroad into Afghanistan from the north, as well as the New Silk Road component of China connecting to Afghanistan through the Afghan Wakhan corridor and engaging China economically to protect mining sites with private security while ensuring an end of terrorist manpower flow into Afghanistan from East Turkmenistan (aka Xinjiang that holds 3 million of them in re-education camps).

- create grid independent self sufficiency on NATO bases by deploying renewable powered solutions

- change US energy policy to all of the above and become world's number one oil and gas producer, thus any high price of fuel would be transferred to a global market and shared by world's consumers of hydrocarbon products,

- make energy consumption in US military cheaper and resilient to hydrocarbon price fluctuations: this with compact fusion (kind of like the Manhattan project, not yet operational), the Great Green Fleet, aviation bio-fuels, etc.

There was more, but you get the point.

2. US patrol engaging Taliban who hid behind structures and walls, unable to get kills and air strikes taking too long to get there:

- I proposed and got the XM-25 designed, built and deployed to resolve this.
- fielded a number of high tech solutions with drones which would do same.
- changed strategy according to the "Mount and Blade" game of defending outposts and cities

it worked great. US fatalities are so low that it is safer for Americans in Afghanistan than for pedestrians in Aspen.

The Taliban attacked fortified camps and outposts... and thus got systematically slaughtered... try breaching the castle wall in Mount and Blade and you'll get the idea.

So what is the proper counter strategy for the Taliban? It's easy: don't attack American outposts and camps at all... attack Americans when they are off base and aren't wearing body armor. Basically the Taliban would have to change their strategy from war fighting to HUNTING Americans until they get a kill rate of about 200 a month. Terrorist attacks don't work. Those who perpetrate these terrorist attacks against civilian soft targets to intimidate, never get to repeat them: they get caught or killed.

The Taliban strategy to attack civilian convoy supply lines in Pakistan was correct, but they never adjusted to my "Mount and Blade castle defense strategy". The tactics that the Taliban should be pursuing are Mafia style assassinations of Americans... not terrorist attacks. Those who develop the BEST SKILLS and get highest kill rates, would get to fight on and produce better results as well as train others. Sniper attacks work too. I think the Taliban should study the tactics of the French and Polish insurgencies in WWII, manned with professional soldiers and the sniper tactics of the Finns when deferring Soviet aggression in the Winter War... winter being the key here: it is a GREAT ADVANTAGE, yet for the Taliban it's a vacation from fighting. Why?

Comments

kuffodog said…
"Monday's incident brings the number of US service member deaths in Afghanistan this year to 20. There have also been three non-combat deaths this year."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/soldier-killed-taliban-attack-afghanistan-191223053450593.html

Death toll includes accidents and crashes. The US gun violence is around 90 ... a DAY! Correction: the death toll is now 100 per day, I remembered numbers from BEFORE you stopped "stop and frisk". Check for yourselves:

https://www.bradyunited.org/key-statistics

kuffodog said…
"Tens of thousands of people have fled towards the Turkish border amid increased bombardment of the rebel-held Idlib province in north-west Syria.

Turkey already hosts some 3.7 million Syrian refugees - the largest refugee population in the world."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50886120
kuffodog said…
USA sanctioned the EU by sanctioning Germany and Russia over Nord Stream 2 pipeline. EU has a common energy policy. Any gas supply through the pipeline can be delivered to anywhere in Europe.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-vows-push-ahead-natural-gas-pipeline-europe-despite-trump-n1106091

"Trump enacted legislation Friday that will sanction companies and individuals involved in laying the Nord Stream 2 pipeline through the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany."
kuffodog said…
Biomass is renewable and burns much, much cleaner than coal. I still recommend farming genetically engineered trees that grow to maturity in 7 years (20-30 yards high). Higher rate of regrowth, means less landmass required to farm the trees.

https://sandbag.org.uk/project/playing-with-fire/
kuffodog said…
"It's good entertainment" - Bloomberg on debates

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1208842110385999873

Well. Judging by the loss of interest and absence of witty sarcasm from at least a few reporters as evidenced by their Twitter account feeds... that is disputable to say the least.

kuffodog said…
The Kubik Plan can be legally mandated. Try it:

"A requirement for new homes built in California starting in 2020 to include solar rooftop panels is now formally part of the state’s building code. It follows approval Tuesday by the California Building Standards Commission of a plan endorsed in May by a state energy panel."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/california-clears-final-hurdle-for-state-solar-mandate-for-new-homes.html

...and here is some stupid Polack jokes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polack
https://www.lysator.liu.se/jokes/polish.html
kuffodog said…
"This is the world of open-source software, where code is written and distributed freely. So how did a business model that essentially revolves around giving away information and products take over the world?"

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/14/how-open-source-software-became-the-new-industry-standard.html

kuffodog said…
Iraq War version 6.0

Trump and Saudi vs Iraqi Shia militia backed by Iran.

"Top Iraqi militia leader warns of strong response to U.S. air strikes"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-usa/top-iraqi-militia-leader-warns-of-strong-response-to-us-air-strikes-idUSKBN1YY0II

Iraq War 1.0 - The Gulf War
Iraq War 2.0 - US invasion of Iraq (Mission Accomplished)
Iraq War 3.0 - Sectarian War
Iraq War 4.0 - Surge and Anti Insurgency War
Iraq War 5.0 - Intervention against ISIS
Iraq War 6.0 - US vs Shia Militia backed by Iran. THE FINALE! BOOHOO!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Iraq_War
kuffodog said…
When the Polish regime used to take my advice, they asked what they should do for the Polish presidency in the EU and I advised them to promote the country for tourism and build the country's image; we did some ops to get tourists into the country, like building the world's largest Jesus Christ statue near the German border. I also told them to build the fucking roads, so they can drive here without ending up a statistic on a BLACK POINT.

Here are the results:

"Over 18.3 million tourists visit Poland in record-breaking 2017"
https://www.pot.gov.pl/en/news/over-18-3-million-tourists-visit-poland-in-record-breaking-2017
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/POL/poland/tourism-statistics

https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czarny_punkt

I looked this up, because a neighbor argued with me today and was convinced that in the 1980's there were more tourists here in the mountain area. Bullshit. They have cars now and don't come in packs on the train. They used to wait five years to be able to buy a new Fiat 126p in the 1980's. He's not going senile mind you. Selective memory.
kuffodog said…
"Muqtada al-Sadr warns of ‘consequences’ if Iraq dragged into US-Iran conflict"
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/182888c5-52a7-48d3-9a59-2fe3efd1b759

A Haitian gangster-terrorist warned me once... of "consequences". Then some 300 thousand Haitians got buried alive in Port-au-Prince. Now Al-Sadr threatens US directly in the same manner. It is time, as Zbigniew Brzezinski once put it: to let Iran and its Iraqi proxy know that the reach of American power is global.



kuffodog said…
Iran, the Syrian regime and Hezbollah are enemies of the US. They just attacked US forces. US has the right to call article 5 of NATO in... and put an end of Assad.
kuffodog said…
Australia is on fire.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50938504
kuffodog said…
I've brainstormed ideas on how to melt snow that piles up on roads instead of moving it, especially on city streets where too much of it has to be removed in dump trucks. Melting it with trucks that are powered by electricity, which cooks off the snow into vapor that flies off into the atmosphere, could be one way of doing it. Where the water can be poured out behind the truck, after the snow is melted and made into warm water inside it (nuclear fusion reactor on the truck would be good for this). The snow removal would thus use the hot water from the melted snow:

1. to rinse remaining snow and flow it off into the gutters, wells and off the road
2. heat the road somewhat so fresh snowfall would melt

I though about electric truck using inductive heating to heat the snow on the ground first. This too would be a good solution to melt off the snow, however I ran into a problem of how hot the inductive heat would have to be vs the maximum speed with which the truck would move. You want it to be able to move at at least 30 miles an hour and melt everything on the road in its path. Solution seems dual. First use the truck the picks up the snow off the ground, sucks it in, melts and pours out water behind it or sublimes it to steam it into the air. Then, if that water freezes, get the remaining snow, sleet or ice with the truck that has and undercarriage of inductive or radiation heating and clear remaining solid water off the pavement of sidewalk.

This bring ups some other ideas: melting collected snow into pipelines or reservoirs or pouring it off into ground water. A market exists for smaller devices that heat and melt off the snow for real property owners to melt it off... and let it run off to stay off.

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